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Salem, Oregon
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The technical committee advising Columbia River fishery managers
has released its forecast for the 2010 spring Chinook run. If the
fish show up as projected, the forecast of 470,000 spring chinook
would be the largest return to the Columbia since 1938.
The forecasted run is up significantly from last year’s
final run of 169,300 fish.
Because of challenges in forecasting the spring chinook returns
in recent years, members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
had to reconsider the model they have used in past years to predict
the number of returning fish.
According to Stuart Ellis, current chair of the TAC and fisheries
scientist with the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC),
committee members were leery of the record number of spring Chinook
“jacks” counted at Bonneville Dam in 2009. Jacks are
immature, precocious males that return after just one or two years
in the ocean.
In the past few years, forecasts relying heavily on jack counts
from the previous season had overstated the actual return of adult
fish by an average of 45 percent. An accurate preseason forecast
is necessary to set commercial and recreational harvest levels that
meet treaty obligations under U.S. v Oregon and conservation
mandates to protect fish runs listed under the federal Endangered
Species Act.
Ellis said this year the committee considered several additional
models that took into account other factors such as ocean conditions.
“The number of jacks that returned in 2009 was four times
greater than anything we’ve seen before, which made the number
a statistical anomaly,” Ellis said. “At the same time,
we know the environment for young salmon appears to be changing
and we need to account for that.”
“We’re still projecting a strong return for upriver
spring Chinook salmon next year, but we needed to temper last year’s
jack return with other indicators of spring Chinook abundance,”
he added.
The seven models chosen by TAC generated a range of predicted run
sizes from 366,000 to 528,000 adults. The committee members agreed
on 470,000 as an average of the models. This forecast will now be
used by the managers to develop preseason fishing plans.
The Technical Advisory Committee was established under the U.S.
v. Oregon and includes representatives from Oregon, Idaho and
Washington fish and wildlife departments, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal
Fish Commission (on behalf of the Nez Perce, Umatilla tribe,Warm
Springs and Yakama tribes), the Shoshone-Bannock tribe, the National
Marine Fisheries Commission and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
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About CRITFC
The Portland-based Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission is
the technical support and coordinating agency for fishery management
policies of the Columbia River Basin's four treaty tribes: the Confederated
Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, the Confederated Tribes
of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, the Confederated Tribes
and Bands of the Yakama Nation and the Nez Perce Tribe.
CRITFC, formed in 1977, employs biologists, other scientists, public
information specialists, policy analysts and administrators who work
in fisheries research and analyses, advocacy, planning and coordination,
harvest control and law enforcement. |
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