Authors
Saang-Yoon
Hyun
James J. Anderson
Billy Ernst
Report Reference
#Canadian
Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
62(7): 1665–1680 (2005)
Publication Date
2005
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A
statistical model for in-season forecasts of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus
nerka) returns to the Bristol Bay districts of Alaska
Abstract |
| We developed
a model for in-season age-specific forecasts of salmon returns using
preseason return forecasts, age composition of in-season returns,
cumulative in-season returns by fishing district, and age composition
and an index of abundance from an in-season test fishery. We apply
this method to the sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) fishery
in the Bristol Bay districts of Alaska. The model generates point
estimates and Bayesian probability distributions for return numbers
by age and river, and it provides an integrated framework for including
all of the major data sources currently used in in-season forecasting.
We evaluated model performance using early-season data from 1999–2001
and compared the effects of four information sets on forecast accuracy.
The four information sets were as follows: I, district-specific inshore
return data; II, inshore return data and test fishery data; III, inshore
return data and preseason forecasts; IV, inshore return data, test
fishery data, and preseason forecasts. Forecasts from information
sets II, III, and IV were less biased than those from information
set I. However, in terms of the forecast interval, forecasts from
information set II were best because the 95% highest posterior density
regions of forecasts from information set II covered the actual returns
most frequently |
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